The Planning Fallacy: Why Overachievers Keep Underestimating How Long Things Take and How to Fix It Before It Wrecks Your Schedule
The urge to squeeze more into each day than possible is an illusion. Time to recalibrate.
If you’ve ever started your day convinced you could power through ten major tasks—only to end it wondering where the time went—you’ve fallen victim to the Planning Fallacy. This cognitive bias makes us underestimate how long tasks take, overcommit, and set ourselves up for failure.
For high achievers who thrive on efficiency, this miscalculation isn’t just frustrating—it’s a fast track to burnout. But the good news? You can outsmart your own brain by learning how to estimate time more accurately and schedule in a way that’s actually sustainable.
What Is the Planning Fallacy?
Coined by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, the Planning Fallacy is our tendency to underestimate the time, effort, and complexity of future tasks—even when we have past experience proving otherwise.
Why Do We Keep Getting It Wrong?
Optimism Bias: We assume best-case scenarios, forgetting about inevitable interruptions, distractions, and delays.
Focus on Isolated Tasks: We estimate time for tasks in a vacuum, not accounting for transitions, prep work, or energy dips.
Memory Distortion: We remember completing past tasks, but forget how long they actually took.
The Difference Between Time Blindness and Planning Fallacy
Though related, Time Blindness and The Planning Fallacy are not the same.
Time Blindness is a difficulty in perceiving and managing time, often linked to neurodivergence (such as ADHD). People with time blindness struggle with knowing how much time has passed, how long tasks take, and structuring their schedules effectively.
The Planning Fallacy affects everyone, regardless of neurotype. It’s a universal cognitive bias that causes us to underestimate time, even when we logically know better.
While time blindness can make the planning fallacy worse, the latter is a mistake even the most time-conscious professionals make.
How to Accurately Estimate Time and Plan Smarter
1. Track Your Actual Time Usage
Keep a time log for a week, noting how long key tasks really take.
Compare your predicted vs. actual time to identify patterns.
2. Use the 50% Rule
Whatever you think a task will take, add 50% more time.
A 30-minute task? Budget 45 minutes. A two-hour project? Plan for three.
3. Account for Transition and Setup Time
Meetings aren’t just 30 minutes—they come with prep, context-switching, and follow-ups.
Build in transition time between tasks (5-15 minutes) to reset and refocus.
4. Schedule Buffer Time
Daily buffer: Set aside 1–2 hours for unexpected delays.
Micro-buffers: Add 15-30 minutes between deep work sessions and major meetings.
5. Prioritize Based on Energy, Not Just Time
Schedule deep work in your peak energy hours.
Plan admin and low-stakes tasks when your focus naturally dips.
Why Daily Prep and Wrap-Up Time Matter
Morning Prep: Set Yourself Up for Success
Spend 10–15 minutes identifying priorities and setting realistic expectations.
Review meetings, prep materials, and adjust your task list based on your energy levels.
End-of-Day Wrap-Up: Close the Loop
Spend 10–20 minutes reviewing what you accomplished, tying up loose ends, and setting up for the next day.
This prevents unfinished tasks from bleeding into personal time and mental clutter.
Final Thoughts: Plan Smarter, Not Harder
If you’ve been operating under the illusion that you can squeeze in more than humanly possible each day, it’s time to recalibrate.
Recognizing the Planning Fallacy and adjusting accordingly isn’t about doing less—it’s about doing what actually works. Track your time, build in buffers, and align tasks with your energy levels. The result? A schedule that’s productive and sustainable—without the daily frustration of feeling behind.
Need Help? You don’t need more goals. You need goals that actually make sense for your life.
If your current system is built on pressure, perfectionism, and exhaustion—it’s time for a smarter strategy.
📅 Book your free 20-minute consult and let’s make your goals work for you, not against you.
Article References
The sources cited in the article:
The Decision Lab. "Planning Fallacy." The Decision Lab - Planning Fallacy
Entrepreneur. “What is the Planning Fallacy, and How Can You Avoid It?” Entrepreneur - What is the Planning Fallacy?
Verywell Mind (VM). “Want to Be More Productive? Use Time Blocking.” VM - Want to Be More Productive? Use Time Blocking
Forbes. "Why Highly Productive People Use Time Blocking.” Forbes - Why Highly Productive People Use Time Blocking
Harvard Business Review (HBR) “Align Your Time Management with Your Goals.” HBR - Align Your Time Management with Your Goals
Psychology Today (PT). “Time Blindness.” PT - Time Blindness
healthline. “What Is Time Blindness?” healthline - What is Time Blindness?
